Critical Thinking and Learning Site


Hot Hand Fallacy: randomness perceived as non-randomness


Hot Hand Fallacy You watch a basketball player score four three-pointers in a row. When he successfully shoots a fifth one, you believe that the player is actually “on a hot hand” and so he is going to continue to score. What we think Sometimes we think that if something is repeatedly happening, it will continue to happen for a certain amount of time. As we previously mentioned with the...

Anchoring Effect, when “anchors” affect our decision making.


The Anchoring Effect What we believe. When we make a decision, we collect all the necessary information and analyze all the parameters that factor in before we reach a conclusion. In the end, we choose correctly, or at least we have very good reasons supporting our choice. What is the reality: The initial information we receive, relevant or irrelevant, subconsciously plays a significant role in...

The Bandwagon Effect: when the masses affect us.


The Bandwagon Effect Why is it that the last couple of years more and more men are picking up the habit of growing a beard? What is the deal with people of all ages, creeds, backgrounds, getting tattoos pretty much daily? What about women changing their haircut or dressing style every couple of months, according to the latest fashion trend? Finally, why is it that lately, the football supporters...

Gambler’s Fallacy


Gambler’s Fallacy You see the lottery numbers. Some of them haven’t shown up for some time, so you go and play those numbers, believing that there is a greater chance of winning. Well, there is not, you are just victim of the Gambler’s Fallacy. You are at the supermarket, you are waiting on the line, and you see the line near you going faster. You consider changing lines, but after that...

Αποτελέσματα Έρευνας Confirmatiοn Bias


Τα αποτελέσματα του πειράματος για το Confirmation Bias, στο οποίο συμμετείχαν 212 άτομα. Το πείραμα αυτό διεξήχθη απο έναν Άγγλο ψυχολόγο τον Peter Wason το 1960. Σκοπός του πειράματος είναι να μελετήσουμε την ισχύ και επιρροή του confirmation bias.

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